O papel do reconhecimento do acaso no raciocínio indutivo

Segundo Tversky e Kahneman (1974), a actividade inferencial humana baseia-se em grande medida em heurísticas (regras simplificadas de tomada de decisão) que divergem dos princípios estatísticos apropriados ao julgamento na incerteza. No entanto, Nisbett,Krantz, Jepson e Kunda (1983), defenderam que paralelamente às heurísticas não-estatísticas, as pessoas também possuem heurísticas estatísticas (i.e. representações intuitivas e abstractas de certos princípios estatísticos). Fong e Nisbett (1991), sugerem que o uso das heurísticas estatísticas está dependente de regras de codificação (associadas a domínios de conteúdo específicos). Aqui considera-se que o essencial das regrasde codificação é a facilitação do reconhecimento do componente de acaso subjacente aos problemas indutivos. Assim, condições experimentais que facilitem o reconhecimento deste componente aleatório deverãoresultar numa melhoria do desempenho estatístico. Para testar esta hipótese, foram usadas duas manipulações de facilitação do reconhecimento do acaso. Os participantes responderam a um conjunto de problemas indutivos sobre diversos domínios (Desporto, Fidelidade conjugal, Escola, e Saúde), envolvendo vários princípios estatísticos (Lei dos Grandes Números, Regressão à Média, Base-Rates, e Diagnosticidade) antes e após as manipulações (imediatamente ou duas semanas depois). Os resultados revelam uma melhoriano desempenho estatístico para os domínios Fidelidadee Escola, e para os princípios regressão à média ediagnosticidade

The Role of Construal Levels and Social Goodwill

Costa Pinto, D., Borges, A., Maurer Herter, M., & Boto Ferreira, M. (2020). Reducing Ingroup Bias in Ethical Consumption: The Role of Construal Levels and Social Goodwill. Business Ethics Quarterly, 30(1), 31-63. https://doi.org/10.1017/beq.2019.25Business ethics research has long been interested in understanding the conditions under which ethical consumption is consistent versus context-dependent. Extant research suggests that many consumers fail to make consistent ethical consumption decisions and tend to engage in ethical decisions associated with ingroup (vs. outgroup) identity cues. To fill this gap, four experiments examine how construal levels moderate the influence of ingroup versus outgroup identity cues in ethical consumption. The studies support the contention that when consumers use concrete construal to process information, they will focus on ingroup cues and make ethical consumption decisions that are aligned with ingroup biases. However, when consumers use abstract construal, they will act more consistently with their inner goals rather than focusing on ingroup and outgroup cues. Social goodwill, which indicates desires to give back to society, is identified as mediating the effects. The findings have important implications for ethical consumption and social influence literature.authorsversionpublishe

Paradigma de suporte ao procedimento de dissociação de processos

Neste artigo apresentamos o paradigma experimental de suporte ao uso do Procedimento de Dissociação de Processos (PDP) em medidas de memória. É aqui descrito em detalhe o procedimento experimental que permite o cálculo de estimativas da componente controlada e da componente automática de julgamentos mnésicos, sendo descritas algumas generalizações deste procedimento a outro tipo de julgamentos. São identificadas variáveis que moderam o peso de cada uma das componentes num julgamento e referida a abordagem teorica subjacente à concepção dualista de memória subjacente ao PDP, bem como as explicações alternativas

How Construal Level and Goal Pursuit Shape Health Message Effectiveness on Cessation Behaviors

Herter, M. M., Borges, A., Pinto, D. C., Ferreira, M. B., & Mattila, A. S. (2022). Using Mindsets to Boost Health: How Construal Level and Goal Pursuit Shape Health Message Effectiveness on Cessation Behaviors. European Journal Of Marketing. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJM-04-2020-0290. Funding: This paper received partial support from the Management of Information Research Center (MagIC), project UIDB/04152/2020.ABSTRACT Purpose: The current research examines how construal level shapes the effectiveness of rational (vs. emotional) messages for inducing cessation behaviors. Concrete mindsets foster self-improvement goals, while abstract mindsets boost self-relevance goals. Design/methodology/approach: In four studies, this research examines the moderating role of construal level on health messages and the underlying mechanism of goal pursuit. Findings: Results demonstrate that concrete (vs. abstract) mindsets increase consumers’ intent to engage in cessation behaviors when exposed to rational (vs. emotional) messages. Consistent with our theorizing, we found that self-improvement goals underlie the effects for concrete mindsets, while self-relevance goals mediate the effects for abstract mindsets. Research limitations/implications: The reported effects are limited to health messages focusing on cessation behaviors. Practical implications: This research can help public policymakers to design more effective health messages to foster specific cessation behaviors – quitting smoking and reducing drinking – focusing on concrete (vs. abstract) mindsets and rational (vs. emotional) messages. Originality/value: Our investigation highlights construal level as an important moderator for message appeals (rational vs. emotional) on cessation behaviors, along with the underlying mechanism of goal pursuit, thus contributing to health marketing literature.authorsversionepub_ahead_of_prin

Construção de uma Bateria de Problemas de julgamento e decisão em língua portuguesa

O nosso principal objetivo foi construir uma bateria de problemas de julgamento e decisão em condições de incerteza que possa ser utilizada pela investigação feita em português. A importância deste trabalho passa por construir material cuja qualidade é controlada de forma a reduzir os erros de medida associados à estrutura superficial dos problemas utilizados e, ao mesmo tempo, garantir que os resultados obtidos resultam realmente das características dos processos de julgamento. Com efeito, só desta forma é possível integrar novos dados nas atuais perspetivas de julgamento e decisão e contribuir para o desenvolvimento desta área de investigação. Para além da adaptação de problemas existentes em língua inglesa e da criação de novos itens, foram igualmente criadas versões em que existe conflito entre respostas alternativas e versões em que estas respostas convergem. Para garantir a qualidade desta nova bateria o desempenho de 117 participantes em cada uma das questões foi analisado. A bateria é composta por itens do Teste de reflexão cognitiva (Cognitive Reflection Test), problemas de raciocínio disjuntivo, silogismos, problemas de viés com base no resultado (outcome bias) e de viés retrospetivo (hidsight bias), problemas de probabilidades de partida (base rates e base rates causais), problemas de conjunção de probabilidades e, também, problemas de falácia do jogador.The main goal of this work was the construction of a battery of problems used in the judgment under uncertainty literature that can be employed in future research conducted in Portuguese. This is important to guarantee the quality of the material used in research and thus assuring that results of future research derive from the characteristics of the judgment processes and not so much from the superficial structure of the problems. Indeed, only with this guarantee is it possible to use new data to test current theoretical approaches to judgment and decision and to contribute to the development of this field of research. Besides the adaptation of problems and the development of new items, two version of each problem were created. One version in which there is a conflict between two different responses and another version where these responses converge. To guarantee the quality of this new battery of problems, the performance of 117 participants in each problem was analyzed. The battery is formed by the Cognitive Reflection Test, problems of disjunctive thinking, syllogisms, outcome bias and hindsight bias questions, base rates and causal base rates, problems of conjoint probability and, also, items of gambler’s fallacy

Construct Validation of the Portuguese Version of the Restraint Scale

Aim: The main purpose of this study was to adapt the Restraint Scale (RS) to Portuguese and examine its psychometric properties, specifically its construct validity. Method: In this study, 238 normal-weight adults (82% women; Mean age = 36.6, SD = 15.0) participated in an online survey containing measures of Restraint Scale, Three Factor Eating Questionnaire, Dutch Eating Behaviour Questionnaire, and Body Dissatisfaction and Drive for Thinness scales. Results: Exploratory factor analyses corroborated the two-factors structure found in previous studies, in particular when three items without clear factorial assignment and low correlation were excluded. A final two-factors version of the RS containing seven items presented a very good fit to the measurement model and good internal consistency. Confirmatory factor analysis of the 7-items RS in relation to a three-factor model of overeating, dieting and body dissatisfaction measures revealed that the RS was the only restraint measure loading in all three factors. Conclusion: This suggests that the 7-items Portuguese version of the RS has good psychometric properties and unique features that lend it appropriate to identify and study unsuccessful chronic dieters

False memories and impressions of personality

We extended the false memories paradigm to the study of impressions formation. Traits most commonly used in describing person-targets were employed to identify the four clusters underlying the implicit theory of personality semantic structure (intellectual positive and negative; social positive and negative). Finally, we developed lists including semantic neighbors of the traits closest to the clusters’ centroid and athematic (non-trait) words. Participants were presented with these lists and instructed to either form an impression of a person described by those words or simply to memorize them. Impression formation relative to memory participants produced higher levels of false memories of lures corresponding to the same cluster of the list traits and the reverse pattern was found for a-thematic words. Parallel results from a gist test suggest that forming impressions implies the activation of a specialized associative memory structure underlying the referred bi-dimensional implicit theory of personality (Rosenberg, Nelson, & Vivekananthan, 1968)

O sonho (DREAM) comanda a memória: Listas de palavras associadas para estudos de falsas memórias.

O material experimental testado neste estudo consiste em listas de palavras associadas a uma palavra alvo. Os sujeitos lêem a palavra alvo e registam as primeiras seis palavras que lhes ocorrem. As listas assim produzidas podem ser utilizadas para estudar o fenómeno das falsas memórias utilizando o paradigma DRM (Deese-Roediger-McDermott, ver Roediger & McDermott, 1995)

O sonho (DREAM) comanda a memória: Listas de palavras associadas para estudos de falsas memórias.

O material experimental testado neste estudo consiste em listas de palavras associadas a uma palavra alvo. Os sujeitos lêem a palavra alvo e registam as primeiras seis palavras que lhes ocorrem. As listas assim produzidas podem ser utilizadas para estudar o fenómeno das falsas memórias utilizando o paradigma DRM (Deese-Roediger-McDermott, ver Roediger & McDermott, 1995)

Strategic numeracy : self-serving reasoning about health statistics

This research shows that the same people who appear to have low numerical competence when analyzing personally irrelevant health-related numerical information are able to overcome their reasoning shortcomings and make better judgments when they are shown equivalent information that is personally relevant, and when only a sophisticated kind of reasoning enables them to interpret this information in a favorable way. The fact that people can engage in poorer or more sophisticated numerical reasoning depending on whether that reasoning produces favorable or unfavorable conclusions has implications both for the concept of numeracy as an individual-difference variable and for health communication.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaf